Vol. 11, Issue 12 (2022)

Author(s):
Varalakshmi A, Mohan Kumar TL, Sushma R, Vinay HT and Harish Nayak GH

Abstract:
Banana is a type of fruit from herbaceous plants of the genus Musa. Musa species grow in a wide range of environments and have varied human uses, ranging from the edible bananas and plantains of the tropics to cold-hardy fiber and ornamental plants. The present study was aimed to analyze the trend and forecast in area, production and productivity of banana crop of Karnataka by using the secondary data of area, production and productivity of banana crop for the period of 18 years (2000-01 to 2017-18) collected from Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Karnataka. For this purpose, linear, quadratic, exponential, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted and the best-fitted model was selected based on lowest MAPE and residual assumption tests such as Runs test and Shapiro-Wilks test were carried out. Result revealed that exponential model was best-fitted for area under banana and logistic model for production and productivity of banana crop. The results reveal that there is increasing trend on area, production and productivity of banana crop in Karnataka in above study period. Based on this trend, the banana crop area, production and productivity was forecasted for next five years