Vol. 11, Issue 12 (2022)

Author(s):
Manish Debnath, Arjamadutta Sarangi, Dipaka Ranjan Sena and Dhirendra Kumar Singh

Abstract:
Percolation fluxes from rainfall and surface water sources in a region contributes to ground water recharge. Correct estimation of percolation fluxes and recharge fluxes from stream bed would help in effective ground water recharge estimation at a region. Validated SWAT model was used for estimation of monthly and yearly variation of percolation fluxes and streamflow under climate change in the present study region comprised with Moga, Barnala, Patiala, Sangrur and Ludhiana District of Punjab, India. The variation of monthly average percolation fluxes during the base period (1983-2005) was estimated as 0.02-17.9 mm, 0-2.7 mm, 0-5.8 mm, 0-11.6 mm and 0-2.6 mm for Ludhiana, Barnala, Sangrur, Patiala and Moga district, respectively, whereas during 2006-2030 it was estimated to vary from 0-5.8 mm, 0-1.9 mm, 0-2.7 mm, 0.06-4.4 mm and 0-1.7 mm for the said districts respectively. The maximum and minimum values for monthly average percolation fluxes for the base period (1983-2005) varied from 0-32.6% of the monthly average rainfall whereas, during 2006-2030 it varied from 0-30.5% of the monthly average rainfall. Yearly total percolation flux for Ludhiana, Barnala, Sangrur, Patiala and Moga district were estimated to be reduced by 64.7%, 22.1%, 44.1%, 51% and 46.2%, respectively during 2006-2030 under RCP4.5 as compared to the base period 1983-2005. The validated SWAT model estimated monthly average streamflow was found to be reduced by 73%, 65.5%, 73.7%, 62.1%, 41.4%, 27.9%, 38.8%, 42.1%, 6.1% 13.2% and 55%, respectively for the month of January, February, March, April, May, July, August, September, October, November and December, respectively, whereas for the month of June it was estimated to increase by 44.3% during 2006-2030 over the base period from 1983-2005. Reduction of both the percolation fluxes and streamflow under climate change indicated a lesser ground water recharge potential in future in the study districts and a need for adoption of judicious groundwater management plans for sustainable crop production in the study region.