Vol. 12, Issue 3 (2023)

Author(s):
Pooja BN, Ajitha TK, Prema A, Ayyoob KC and Syama S Menon

Abstract:
An attempt is made to construct forecast models for area, production and productivity of paddy cultivation in Kerala. ARIMA and Exponential smoothing models were fitted for different seasons. The secondary data collected from the year 1960-61 to 2019-20 on area, production and productivity for three different seasons like autumn, winter and summer on paddy in Kerala from the Official Website “Directorate of Economics and Statistics” (DES), Kerala have been made use of for the study. Time series modelling and forecasting analysis identified Browns’ exponential smoothing model as the best to predict the area and production under autumn paddy with an adjusted R² equal to 0.99 and 0.95 respectively and also for paddy productivity in winter (adjusted R² = 0.87) whereas Holts’ exponential smoothing model was found as the best for autumn and summer paddy productivity with adjusted R² equal to 0.87. Simple exponential smoothing model was the best for modelling area under summer paddy (adjusted R2 =0.93), production of winter paddy (adjusted R² = 0.87) and summer paddy (R² = 0.60) and ARIMA (0, 1, 0) was the best model for area under winter paddy with adjusted R² = 0.98.