Vol. 12, Issue 5 (2023)

Author(s):
KY Ingale and Riyadh Senan

Abstract:
This study aims to predict India's GDP per capita By ARIMA annual forecasting models. We have used a historic era of Indian GDP from (1960-2020) AD to develop and evaluate various ARIMA models. The ideal model for our data has been chosen using the Box-Jenkins method. We tested several different models among others, ARIMA: (1,1,1), (2,1,2), and (1,2,1). Standard measurements like Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error were used to assess each model's performance (RMSE). Our findings indicate that ARIMA models are effective in predicting India's GDP per capita. We discovered that the ARIMA model (0.2.1) fits our data better. Our study has important implications for policymakers and investors who rely on accurate predictions of GDP per capita. By accurately predicting GDP per capita, policymakers can make informed decisions about economic policies that affect the country's development. Investors can use these predictions to make informed decisions about investing in the Indian economy.