Vol. 12, Issue 7 (2023)

Author(s):
Sujata Baruah, Dr. RP Paswan and Borsha Neog

Abstract:
The present paper is aimed to determine the exact time of the structural break in the rapeseed and mustard production, and followed by the examination of the presence of cointegration between the crop productivity and the various variables under investigation. The data collected for the study pertained to the annual time series of area, production, productivity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total rainfall, bright sunshine hours, and wind speed for the period 1988-89 to 2014-2015. The production of rapeseed and mustard is found to have breaks in the years 1995-96 and 1996-97. Johansen’s cointegration test was used to check for the presence of the cointegration between the variables under the crop. It is concluded that the variables in the model are cointegrated. This is followed by the employment of the Vector Equilibrium Correction Model, finally proving the presence of a long-run relationship between the variables. It is found that minimum temperature has a negative relationship with the productivity of the crop whereas area and total rainfall have positive and significant short-run effects on the productivity of rapeseed and mustard crop in the study location.