Vol. 12, Issue 8 (2023)

Author(s):
Prity Kumari, DJ Parmar and Sathish Kumar M

Abstract:
A GARCH, eGARCH, and TAR model was used in this study to forecast sapota area, production and productivity in Gujarat. Secondary data on sapota area, production and productivity for the period 1991–1992 to 2016–17 was provided by the Directorate of Horticulture in Gujarat. For the years 1958–1959 to 2016–2017, time series secondary data on the area, production and productivity of sapota were gathered. Software called R Studio (version 3.5.2) was used to analyze the collected data. For the estimation of the area, production, and productivity of sapota in Gujarat, different models such as GARCH, eGARCH, and TAR were employed. The study found that the GARCH model, with a forecast value of 30.02 ('000' Ha) for 2017–18, best explained the area of the sapota. The TAR model provided the best explanation for the production and productivity of sapota, with anticipated values of 327.33 ('000' MT) and 11.15 (MT/ha), respectively.