Vol. 12, Issue 8 (2023)

Author(s):
Prity Kumari, DJ Parmar and Sathish Kumar M

Abstract:
In this study, the GARCH, eGARCH, and TAR models were used in order to forecast citrus area, production and productivity in Gujarat. Secondary statistics on sapota production, area and productivity were provided by the Directorate of Horticulture in Gujarat from 1991-1992 to 2016-17. Throughout the period 1958-1959 to 2016–2017, time series secondary data on citrus area, production and productivity were collected. Analysis of the data was carried out using the R Studio software (version 3.5.2). To predict citrus production, area and productivity in Gujarat, GARCH, eGARCH and TAR models were used. GARCH was found to be the most effective model for explaining citrus area for 2017-18, with a forecast value of 45.85 ('000' Ha). Citrus production and productivity were best described by the TAR model, with anticipated values of 615.32 ('000' MT) and 9.29 (MT/ha).