Vol. 11, Special Issue 4 (2022)

Author(s):
Dr. Nageena Nazir, Dr. SA Mir and Dr. BS Dhekale

Abstract:
The present investigation is carried out to study the trends in dry fruit area, production and productivity in Jammu and Kashmir for the period 2000-2001 to 2017-2018 based on the parametric and nonparametric regression models. In parametric models different linear models are employed. The statistically most suited parametric models are selected on the basis of highest adjusted R2, significant regression co-efficient and co-efficient of determination (R2). Appropriate model is selected based on the model performance measures such as, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, assumptions of normality and independence of residuals. Nonparametric estimates of underlying growth functions are computed at each and every time points. Relative growth rates of crop productions are estimated based on the best fitted trend functions. In this study it is found that non parametric/semi parametric regression comes out to be a good fit for trend in dry fruit in comparison to parametric regression. Even semi parametric spline is selected as the best fit model for trend analysis.