Vol. 11, Special Issue 11 (2022)

Author(s):
Madhu J Saravand, Revappa M Rebasiddanavar, Swati Prakash Relekar and Dr. KP Thakar

Abstract:
This study was conducted on Pearl millet crop in Gujarat and India with the use of historical data on an area, production and yield of Pearl millet crop. The data was collected for 20 years from the year 1999-2000 to 2018-2019 and analysis was carried out using Compound Growth Rate. Coppock’s Instability Index, additive decomposition model, path analysis and Box Jenkins’ ARIMA model. ARIMA models selected for forecasting Pearl millet production in different regions included: (0, 0, 5) for North Gujarat; (0, 1, 5) for Saurashtra; (0, 1, 6) for Central Gujarat; (0, 1, 3) for South Gujarat. The best selected model for Gujarat (0, 0, 6) and best model for India (0, 0, 5). Further, the supply-demand forecasting scenario revealed comfortable position of Gujarat in terms of surplus supply of Pearl millet over the predicted demand during 2020-21 to 2030-31.