Vol. 11, Special Issue 11 (2022)

Author(s):
Shweta Kujur, JL Chaudhary and Deepika Unjan

Abstract:
In the present study, assessment of rainfall probabilities was carried out on weekly basis of 30 years daily rainfall data for the period 1989-2019. The observed values were computed by using Markov chain model. The initial probability of occurrence of wet weeks was higher during SMWs 28^th to 35^th. The range of probability of wet week varied from 61.3% to 71.0%. The conditional probability of occurrence of wet week preceded by wet weeks was higher during SMWs 27^th to 36^th. The range of probability of wet week varied from 50.0% to 79.0%. The probability of occurrence of two and three consecutive wet weeks was higher during SMWs 28^th to 33^rd. The range of probability of wet week varied from 22.0% to 33.1%. Results showed that the 24^th to 26^th SMW should be used for field preparation and kharif crop sowing. Dryland crop planting in the rabi season may be finished between the 40^th and 42^nd SMW as the further weeks have a less probability of receiving enough rainfall.